It is increasingly clear that a rattled Vladimir Putin’s political end is approaching. All that really matters now is whether it comes sooner or later.
Having appeared on national television to warn of a coup attempt by traitors – and an impending civil war – Putin abruptly reversed his position only a couple of hours later. The Kremlin announced that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief protagonist, would go into exile in Belarus and all charges against him had been dropped.
On 16 June, Bamako asked the UN Security Council to withdraw the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Jean-Hervé Jézéquel and Ibrahim Maïga look at the reasons behind the Malian authorities’ decision as well as its consequences.
Even in such a fast-moving war, still some events have the ability to surprise. The decision by Wagner Group leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to launch an apparent coup attempt, leading his troops into Russia, where he occupied the military HQ in Rostov and was heading towards Moscow, appeared to have left the Kremlin floundering.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has become more complex in the wake of the past weekend, which found Yevgeny Prigozhin marching his troops toward Moscow, and President Vladimir Putin finding a safe haven for Prigozhin in Belarus. The conventional wisdom among politicians and pundits is that this is an opportunity for Ukraine and its Western allies to increase the pressure on Russia. Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, for example, favors “better and more weapons and better and more sanctions as fast as possible,” believing that Putin is more likely to “negotiate an end to this war if he is losing on the battlefield.” The problem, however, is that the war remains unwinnable; neither side has the ability to achieve a decisive victory.
The war between Ukraine and Russia has taken a surprising turn when Prigozhin and his group of mercenaries revolted against Putin and marched towards Moscow. They were stopped by a deal mediated by Lukashenko who offered them asylum in Belarus. This event has raised many questions about the future of the war and the region.
A Daesh member was caught in an operation in Istanbul while preparing a terrorist attack Friday.
As the Istanbul Police Department continues efforts to uncover the terrorist organization’s activities, police teams determined that a suspect, who was described as a “lone terrorist” and seeking to carry out an attack, possibly as an armed suicide bombing, was found at an address in the Bahçelievler district.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s victory over the alliance of opposition parties in Turkey’s May elections, in which he secured another term as president and maintained his alliance’s majority in parliament, came as a surprise to many, as credible pollsters had forecast just the opposite. Investors had to quickly adjust their market positioning as a result. At the same time, Erdoğan was making rapid adjustments of his own, backtracking on his campaign promise that he would maintain the existing economic model, which has been a major source of financial instability over the past five years. His change was likely driven by the high likelihood of a balance of payments crisis — that is, an inability to redeem external debt or pay for imported goods. His only other options were to impose strict capital controls, a move that would be perceived negatively by both business owners and households alike or to sign a stand-by agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a dramatic policy shift with unmeasurable domestic and external political outcomes. Not wanting to go down these paths, Erdoğan retreated from the so-called “Turkish economic model,” at least temporarily or partially, and brought in a new economic team.
Le mystère de la guerre d’Ukraine échappe encore à son Jules César. Pourtant, de plus en plus de détails cruciaux passent les barrages. Poutine montre ses cartes, Loukachenko divulgue des documents, Zelensky baratine et raconte… Quand la guerre a éclaté, les États-Unis venaient de finaliser leur grand exploit : la consolidation de leur pouvoir sur l’ensemble du monde civilisé. Personne dans l’histoire ne pourrait prétendre à une telle prouesse ; ni l’Empire romain d’autrefois, ni l’Empire britannique, ni Hitler ni Staline ; mais les Yanks ont réussi. Leurs agents choisis et leurs mandataires dirigeaient tous les États importants : l’Angleterre et la France, l’Allemagne et le Japon étaient tous gouvernés par des agents américains. L’Allemagne et le Japon peuvent encore être occupés par l’armée américaine, mais même si la France n’a pas de troupes américaines, elle est toujours dirigée par un agent américain. Le mandataire américain de la Suède a récemment accepté d’abandonner sa précieuse et profitable neutralité. La Finlande a renoncé à l’approvisionnement inépuisable en gaz et en bois bon marché de la Russie pour devenir un pion, au cœur de la nature sauvage du grand Nord. Ces agents américains allaient pouvoir infliger d’horribles souffrances à leurs sujets ; ils allaient détruire des industries, amener la famine et des épidémies sur leurs nations, juste pour suivre la baguette magique entre les mains de Washington. Aucun pays n’est loin d’une base militaire américaine : oui, ils contrôlent le monde.
On the evening of Friday, June 23, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin effectively broke ties with Moscow and initiated a mutiny against the Russian military, successfully occupying Rostov. Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned Prigozhin’s actions in an address to the nation as Russian authorities secured Moscow and reportedly engaged Wagner forces around Rostov. At the time of writing on the afternoon of Saturday, June 24, Prigozhin appears to have accepted a pause in further escalation, stating that Wagner forces will return to base. Today’s special edition of the Russian War Report provides an overview of the last thirty-six hours, including details on how Prigozhin’s rhetoric escalated into open conflict, open-source analysis of the latest footage, and a review of some of the competing narratives on Telegram and across the Russian information ecosystem.
