Month: March 2023

Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Imminent?

Is China really on the verge of invading the island of Taiwan, as so many top American officials seem to believe? If the answer is “yes” and the U.S. intervenes on Taiwan’s side — as President Biden has sworn it would — we could find ourselves in a major-power conflict, possibly even a nuclear one, in the not-too-distant future. Even if confined to Asia and fought with conventional weaponry alone — no sure thing — such a conflict would still result in human and economic damage on a far greater scale than observed in Ukraine today.

Russia Wants a Long War

The West Needs to Send Ukraine More Arms, More Quickly

U.S. President Joe Biden’s historic visit to Kyiv days before the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent an important message to Ukrainians and, indeed, to Russians. “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia,” Biden proclaimed, adding that the United States will support Ukraine “as long as it takes.” Indeed, “as long as it takes” has become the new talking point for Ukraine’s allies, repeated by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. But “as long as it takes” also signals to many Ukrainians that the allies expect the war to drag on for years, with Ukraine bearing the brunt of it. And they are right: even as the United States and its allies have sent billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment to Ukraine, there remains one thing they seem unable to supply: a clear, united commitment to a rapid Ukrainian victory. Unless the United States wants to find itself embroiled in another forever war, on terms that very much suit Russian President Vladimir Putin, it’s time for that to change.

An Egyptian plan for Syria: ‘Arab forces’ on the border and Iran out

Arab states pursuing reconciliation with Syria aim to achieve what was unachievable during the war: Breaking Syria’s alliances and placing Arab troops on Syrian soil.

After the devastating earthquake that shook Syria and Turkiye on 6 February, Damascus has found itself at the center of unprecedented regional diplomatic activity. Egypt and Jordan’s foreign ministers and a senior Arab parliamentary delegation dropped in for visits, while unconfirmed reports say Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat also made an appearance in the Syrian capital.

Iran finalizes deal for Russian Su-35

Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby warned that the Su-35 would ‘significantly strengthen Iran’s air force relative to its regional neighbors’

The Islamic Republic of Iran finalized a deal for the purchase of Su-35 fighter jets with the Russian government, according to state media reports on 11 March.

US congress votes against ending occupation of Syria

Around 900 US troops remain illegally stationed in Syria, controlling large swathes of the country’s oil-rich regions

A War Powers Resolution that would have ended the US army’s illegal occupation of Syria was struck down late on 8 March by the House of Representatives in a 103-321 vote.

Will Pakistan defy US sanctions to complete ‘Peace Pipeline’ with Iran?

Pakistan risks major financial setbacks if it fails to construct its part of a gas pipeline with Iran. Islamabad must follow India’s lead in resisting US sanctions to secure vital national energy supply.

Islamabad has formed a diplomatic channel to convince Washington to ease sanctions on Iran, which would finally allow for the completion of a crucial pipeline project to bring cheap Iranian natural gas to Pakistan.

Glass Houses: U.S. Military Trainees and Destabilization of African Governments

  • The United States provided training to several West African military officers who later went on to be involved in at least nine coup attempts in five countries since 2008.
  • Russia may integrate this narrative into overall efforts to undermine the U.S. campaign to convince African governments not to engage further with the Kremlin-linked private military company known as the Wagner Group.
  • Like many global powers, the United States has a history of involvement in engaging in the affairs of governments across the African continent, which can serve to further discredit future U.S. involvement.
  • Russian influence is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa while simultaneously, European countries are drawing down forces from peacekeeping and counterterrorism operations in Mali.

US and Saudi policies diverge over Yemen

Riyadh wants to exit its Yemen quagmire and is willing to end the siege on Ansarallah-controlled areas. Washington will have none of that, and is sabotaging a Saudi-Yemeni peace deal.

The United States has played a crucial role in supporting the Saudi-led war on Yemen since its inception in 2015. However, after eight years of war and dramatic geopolitics changes that have taken place in Yemen, West Asia, and the world, Washington’s goals have now diverged from those of its Saudi client state.

The hidden security clauses of the Iran-Saudi deal

The Cradle reveals confidential clauses of the agreement struck between Tehran and Riyadh, which was reached courtesy of Beijing.

Under Chinese auspices, on 10 March in Beijing, longtime regional competitors Iran and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement to restore diplomatic relations, after a break of seven years.