Global Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity

We have published our estimates of OPEC production capacity and surplus capacity every month since 2002 in our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This data series is a useful indicator of global oil market tightness. Large surplus production capacity numbers suggest that OPEC has restrained crude oil production in the past to avoid over-supplying markets, which would result in large inventory builds and lower prices.

The Problem With Juneteenth

Juneteenth was a people’s holiday with deep meaning for the descendants of enslaved people. But the declaration of an official federal holiday has turned it into an opportunity for corporate exploiters and cynical politicians to show pretend concern for Black people. At best Juneteenth provides a history lesson and an opportunity for much needed political education.

The People vs. Petrocracy

The United States is moving fast on climate change—in the wrong direction. The Energy Information Agency forecasts that by 2023, the nation will set a new annual record for oil extraction: 4.6 billion barrels. Plans to build more than 200 new natural gas power plants are in the works. More than 130 new oil and gas pipelines now under development will carry enough fuel to increase national emissions by 10 percent—560 million metric tons per year.

Geopolitical Update: U.S. Tact To Make Inroads In Asia

The U.S. sought to bolster its support in Asia by reassuring nations they do not need to join a coalition against China, drawing a stark contrast with Beijing’s threats to defend its interests with military force, said Bloomberg.

The Bloomberg report — US Makes Asia Inroads by Playing Down Need to Oppose China — said on June 13:

Nuclear Weapons: World Spent $156,841 In Every Minute Of 2021

The world nuclear weapons spending found a significant increase in 2021, finds the latest International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) report published on Tuesday.

In one year, the nine nuclear-armed nations – U.S., China, Russia, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the UK — spent a total of $82.4 billion on upgrading and maintaining their estimated 13,000 nuclear weapons, marking a 9% hike from the year before, according to ICAN’s estimates.

Unthinkable Rhetoric: Nuclear Weapons and the Ukraine War

Protests have erupted around the world against Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons. But any country in possession of nuclear weapons also puts us all in perpetual danger. (Photo: Kwh1050/Creative Commons)

At the outset of his invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin  declared  that other countries “will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history” if they intervened.

MBS and Putin: Why Talk to One and Not the Other?

President Biden is confronted with two decisions: The first is whether to go to Saudi Arabia this summer to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to try to persuade him to increase his country’s oil output. The second is whether to speak directly with Vladimir Putin to try to end the war in Ukraine. Neither outreach is a form of recognition; it is a necessity for much larger considerations.

Proxy war or not, Ukraine shows why moral hazards matter

In late April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused NATO of waging a “proxy” war against Russia by supporting Ukraine as it defended itself from a Kremlin invasion. “War means war,” he said ominously, implying that the Alliance is stoking Ukraine’s resistance to advance its own interests.