In 2022, there will be great interest in Asia’s summit season because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The annual East Asia Summit, ASEAN and APEC meetings always attract attention due to the proximity of many world leaders, but the less glamorous work of the multilateral mechanisms goes on throughout the year in efforts to drive cooperation as well as to prepare for the jamborees at the year’s end.
As Russia continues to wage its war in Ukraine, several Western leaders have openly hinted at their wish to see Russian president Vladimir Putin go. US president Joe Biden declared on 26 March that Putin “cannot remain in power”, while UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesperson said on 1 March that the sanctions on Russia “are to bring down the Putin regime.” Yet while their ambition to see the end of Putin’s regime is understandable, there is no guarantee that what comes after will be any better.
Just as the world appeared to be on its way out of the health crisis caused by the pandemic, with societies returning to normalcy, the Russian invasion of Ukraine dashed all hopes of the world getting better again (and lately, COVID-19 has been resurging as well). This war is set to have devastating worldwide consequences, adding a new layer of turmoil to what the world has been through for the last two years. The pandemic and associated problems made Russia’s invasion of Ukraine possible in the first place. Would Putin have carried out this invasion back in 2019 or 2018, when world’s leaders weren’t drowning in problems that compromised their ability to respond in a unified manner?
Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony, was to have a referendum when the Spaniards chose to leave in 1975. The people of Western Sahara were to choose between independence or integration with Morocco. Due to the complex interplay of factors, the referendum could not take place and the region was controlled by Morocco and Mauritania. In 1979, Mauritania signed a peace deal with the Polisario Front (an independence movement led by the Sahrawi natives which was founded in 1973) and gave up its control over Western Sahara. Currently, Morocco controls over 80 per cent of the territory and contends that its jurisdiction over the region even predates the Spanish rule. Spain has remained neutral on the Western Sahara conflict all these years and has pushed for a political resolution which is mutually acceptable to the parties involved.
The actions of the authorities in developed countries, essentially an extension of the Keynesian economic policy discourse, have brought the economies into disrepute. These actions consist of immense stimulus and virtually unfunded government indexation of voter income in the face of expected impoverishment amid COVID, lockdowns, and other global problems.
As a Ukrainian living in Germany, Anna Vlasiuk has spent countless hours on the phone to make sure her family in north-western Ukraine was safe. Then one day, the war came to her local grocery shop.
“I went to the supermarket and there was a sign saying, ‘No sunflower oil in our store, due to the war in Ukraine,’ the 32-year-old human rights worker told IWPR. She added that her father, a farmer in the region of Rivne near the Polish and Belarus border, had been warning her that it was just a matter of time until the Russian invasion would hit the tables of millions in Ukraine and around the world.
Liniștea dinaintea imploziei economice a Occidentului
Via Trenduri:
„În aproximativ 15 zile Rusia nu va mai avea bani să finanţeze războiul”. Asta spuneau toţi mâncătorii de rahat ai Occidentului, la comanda unor neica nimeni din armata SUA, acei mari militari care trimit tineri semi-drogaţi pe front în operaţiuni în care nu fac deosebirea între simulările de pe calculator şi viaţa reală. Acei mari generali ai SUA care, fără tehnologia militară asistată de computer, ar fi capabili să se auto-bombardeze întrucât, de cele mai multe ori, le e greu să facă diferenţa dintre Arizona şi Afganistan.
GEORGIA Breakaway territory South Ossetia’s de facto president Anatoly Bibilov announced last Friday a referendum scheduled for 17 July on whether the region — which Moscow recognised as an independent state in 2008 — should accede to the Russian Federation. Bibilov was defeated in second-round elections earlier this month by Alan Gagloev, who will take over as de facto president next week. Crisis Group expert Olesya Vartanyan says that if the referendum goes ahead, the majority of the local population of some 30,000 people will certainly vote in favour of joining Russia. But whether Moscow promptly proceeds with annexation depends on its readiness to revise the status quo that has been in place for almost fourteen years and risk precipitating a new crisis in another post-Soviet state, which could divert its focus from the war in Ukraine.
As their strategic rivalry grows, China and the U.S. are increasingly operating in close proximity in the Asia Pacific. An accident or misinterpreted signal could set off a wider confrontation. The danger level is low, but dialogue is needed to dial it down further.
What’s new? The risk of an unintended collision between U.S. and Chinese ships or planes has grown as the two sides expand military activities in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Heightened political tensions increase the escalatory potential for such an incident and make crisis management more difficult.
During the first three months of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia on the battlefield has astonished the watching world and led to mounting speculation that Vladimir Putin’s invasion will end in defeat.
At the same time, the situation at sea remains significantly more favorable for the Kremlin and demands urgent international attention. Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports is strangling the country’s economy and also threatening to spark a global food security crisis by preventing Ukrainian agricultural exports from reaching international markets. Unless this issue is addressed, it will cause famine around the world in the coming months.