Vladimir Putin has almost no chance of successfully occupying Ukraine

Ukrainians are bravely defending their country against Russian aggression, but President Vladimir Putin’s forces have seized or are on the verge of seizing a number of cities across southern and eastern Ukraine.

In the coming months, Russia could potentially gain control over approximately half of the country running from Kyiv in the north to Odesa in the south and the Donbas in the east. If they are successful, Russian occupying forces will assume responsibility for approximately 20 million people across an area the size of Norway.

Oligarchs Have Shaped Our View of Russia, But It’s Putin’s Corrupt Elite That has Hobbled Him in Ukraine War

Painted Russian wooden dolls of decreasing size one inside the other used to be a symbol of Russia as a mysterious and menacing place. This was the unmistakable message carried by the dolls in the opening credits of the original television version of John Le Carre’s Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.

But this symbol of Russia is now being replaced by a picture in which an oligarch’s giant yacht rides at anchor off some Mediterranean resort. This provides an easily recognisable visual sign of the vast wealth obtained by the oligarchs, often corruptly acquired through looting the Soviet state of its most valuable assets after its collapse in 1991.

The Root Problem is War Not Putin

War is armed combat between political communities with the aim of inflicting serious injury or death on multiple, non-specified individuals.

War is slaughter.

War is a highly contagious disease, spreading germs the way a common cold causes its human host to sneeze. Among the many war germs are hatred, fear, dehumanization, tribalism, glorification of violence, and legitimization of murder. Without sufficient therapy, each war leads to the next.

Erdogan steps up pro-refugee rhetoric as 20,000 Ukrainians come to Turkey

The Turkish president’s pro-refugee rhetoric aims to deliver a positive message to Western allies and slash the opposition, but activists wonder if it is sincere.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged that “unfortunate people” who have sought shelter in Turkey would not be sent to their war-torn countries, simultaneously attacking the opposition’s anti-migrant rhetoric and signaling to the Western allies that he would not “weaponize” the refugee issue.

Punish Putin for past and present crimes

For decades, the idea of holding the Russian state accountable for atrocity crimes in a court of law was unthinkable.

The country’s status as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, as well as its refusal to join the International Criminal Court (ICC), have allowed those Russians responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity—against Chechens, Georgians, and Syrians—to escape prosecution. Moscow has also benefited from a lack of political will from other states worried about disturbing the global world order.

No magic tap for Europe to replace Russian gas via Turkey

Europe has been looking to Azerbaijan, Israel and other countries to transit gas via Turkey, but assuming political obstacles can be overcome, the massive investments needed will take time to realize.

The build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders and the subsequent brutal invasion has sent European leaders rushing to find new sources of natural gas to replace at least a significant part of the 155 billion cubic meters of gas that the European Union imported from Russia last year — around 40% of its total consumption. But securing new pipeline gas supplies will not be easy or quick. The simple fact is that there is no “magic tap” that the EU can turn on.

Redefining the African Union’s utility

As it turns 20, hard questions are being asked about the AU’s authority to resolve security challenges in Africa.

February’s African Union (AU) summit was symbolic in several ways. It was held in person in Addis Ababa after nearly two years of online meetings due to COVID-19, signalling a growing confidence in the management of the pandemic. For Ethiopian authorities, the summit was an opportunity to show the government’s control over the fragile security situation in the country.

Biden’s China ‘pivot’ complicated by Russia’s war in Ukraine

President Joe Biden set out to finally complete the “pivot to Asia,” a long-sought adjustment of U.S. foreign policy to better reflect the rise of America’s most significant military and economic competitor: China.

But Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has made that vexing move even more complicated. China’s government has vacillated between full embrace and more measured responses as Russian President Vladimir Putin prosecutes his war, making the decisions for Biden far more layered.