Month: October 2021

What Will Trigger The Next Balkan Conflict? – OpEd

The current security cap imposed on southeastern Europe is no more durable than predecessors that have come and gone along with their great power overlords since 1878. However, this does not mean that the latest public squabbles in Bosnia and Kosovo are immediate existential threats. Since it became clear that Western policies there were not working well, officials and public intellectuals periodically have issued jeremiads about new conflicts and issued demands for the outsiders to club local miscreants into submission. The prevailing dogma is that approved transatlantic institutions, norms, and behaviors constitute the only possible path forward and that Western “help” is necessary because the ill-intentioned nationalists and benighted populations inhabiting the region cannot do “it” (the bundled Western fantasies of democracy promotion and nation-building) by themselves. The botched Butmir initiative of 2009 that capped serial failures to force constitutional reform on Bosnia was one notable example of this diplomatic and rhetorical pathology.

Commercial centre of Syria’s Idlib province comes under regime attack

Residents of Sarmada in north-west Syria were cleaning up rubble on Sunday after heavy bombing by the regime of President Bashar Al Assad, witnesses have said.

It was the first attack on the town, a vital commercial hub near the Bab Al Hawa border crossing with Turkey, since fighting between groups in the region backed by Turkey and Russia intensified last month.

Iraq’s Al Sadr picks team to lead talks with other parties

Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr – whose bloc won the largest share of seats in Sunday’s national elections – has formed his negotiation team to start dialogue with other political parties.

On Sunday, Iraq held its fifth parliamentary elections since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime.

The elections were originally scheduled to be held in May next year but were brought forward to appease the pro-reform, youth-led protest movement that engulfed the country in October 2019.

Turkey’s spy bust escalates rivalry with Iran

Iran and Turkey are increasingly rivals in the Caucasus and in Iraq.

The reported capture of Iranian spies in Turkey comes as the latest sign of the rivalry heating up between Ankara and Tehran, as bilateral tensions over Iraq and Syria have been steadily expanding to the Caucasus since last year’s war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Turkey extended strong military support to Azerbaijan, its close ally and ethnic cousin, to help it prevail over Armenia in the six-week war over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, pursuing a strategic vision that has irked Iran. The conflict ended in November, with Azerbaijan regaining control of several regions under Armenian occupation since the early 1990s. The new reality on the ground has fueled rows over regional transport links, underlain by broader geopolitical interests and growing Iranian concerns over Azerbaijan’s ties with Turkey and Israel.

Will Turkey destabilize northern Syria again? – analysis

Turkey has said it wants to buy US F-16s, hoping that dangling cash in front the US will distract from warmongering in Ankara.

Turkey is threatening a new military offensive in northern Syria aimed at the Kurdish minority in Tel Rifat. These are Kurds who were ethnically cleansed from Afrin by Turkey and its extremist Syrian allies in 2018.

Russia Is No Mideast Superpower

Washington Shouldn’t Overhype the Threat From Moscow

The Russian Ministry of Defense pulled out all the stops for its annual arms expo outside Moscow in late August. For three days, defense ministers and dignitaries from 41 countries, including from the Middle East, were treated to exhibits of cutting-edge technology, live-fire demonstrations, ballerinas pirouetting on tank turrets, and the trailer for an action movie about the 2015 rescue of downed Russian pilots behind enemy lines in Syria.

Unhappy Iran Battles For Lost Influence In South Caucasus – Analysis

Tension with Azerbaijan dies down but underlying differences are likely to widen.

Events that might not matter elsewhere in the world matter quite a lot in the South Caucasus. Given a recent history of conflict, with all the bad feelings that generates, plus outside powers playing geostrategic games, and its growing importance as an energy corridor between Europe and Central Asia, the region is vulnerable.

Putin Claims Islamic State Has 2,000 Fighters In Afghanistan

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the Islamic State (IS) militant group has thousands of fighters in northern Afghanistan, as Moscow prepares to host international talks next week on the situation in the country.

“According to our intelligence, the number of (IS) members alone in northern Afghanistan is about 2,000 people,” Putin said on October 15 during a video address to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit of ex-Soviet states.

Turkey’s Passage To Great Power Status? – Analysis

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has a monumental vision for his country’s largest city: building a new mega canal through Istanbul. Of course, Istanbul is already home to the Bosporus Strait, whose bisection of Europe and Asia has been fought over in numerous wars throughout history and inspired numerous cliches. Nevertheless, Erdogan’s plans raise the prospect that the geostrategic map of the Black Sea may soon be recast.