Month: April 2021

Lebanon’s economic crisis: A tragedy in the making

For the past 18 months, Lebanon has been reeling from a wrenching economic crisis. This essay deciphers the crisis’s origin, describes the current juncture, and reflects on the likely outcomes in the proximate future.

How did we get here?

With hindsight, Lebanon’s economic crisis was predictable. By the time the crisis erupted in October 2019, the economy was facing four extraordinary challenges. First, public sector debt had reached such elevated levels that a default had become a question of when, not if. Second, the banking sector, having lent three-quarters of deposits to the government, had become functionally bankrupt and increasingly illiquid. Third, the productive economy had experienced virtually no growth for an entire decade — a development with acute socio-political implications. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the country was politically rudderless: there was no president between 2014 and 2016, there were multiple and lengthy delays in cabinet formation, and the 2018 parliamentary elections took place but only after a five-year delay. The Hariri government that was in place when the crisis hit in 2019 became impotent to such an extent that it lacked power to deliver on any of the reforms required as a condition for foreign support.

Slaughtering Christians – Islamic State Central Africa Province’s (ISCAP) Regular Tactic For Expansion

The Islamic State (ISIS) Central Africa Province (ISCAP) is one of ISIS’s African affiliates that the global organization and its new leadership use to demonstrate it continues to be relevant and active.

Since its April 2019 inception, ISCAP has mirrored a strategy adopted by ISIS’s most dangerous African branches: the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in Mali, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso; the Islamic State Sinai Province in Egypt; and the Islamic State Libya Province. This strategy focuses mainly on targeting local Christian communities to swiftly expand in Africa. ISCAP’s escalating campaign against Christians is a clear indication that under the global ISIS organization’s new leader Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashimi Al-Qurashi, there is no change in the group’s strategic direction regarding slaughtering Christians; rather it is likely that he has prioritized the targeting of Christians as a crucial manhaj (“methodology”) for expansion in the African continent.

Biden Administration and Iran: Secret Deals and Appeasement Back on the Table?

“The Biden administration appears to be using loopholes when dealing with the Iranian regime. I am again asking direct, yes or no questions on the United States’ involvement in facilitating a South Korean ransom payment to Iran. If the Biden administration is involved in transferring funds to Iran, Congress and the American people must be informed. Biden administration officials continue to deflect and refuse to answer questions from members of Congress regarding this issue.” — Congressman Bryan Steil (R-WI), letter to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, March 25, 2021.

Islamic State Attack in Mozambique Demonstrates Growing Terror Threat

ISCAP’s attack on Mozambican citizens and foreign workers in Palma is reminiscent of the AQIM terrorist attack in In Amenas, Algeria in 2013.
Preparations to rescue workers from the Afungi site in Mozambique and protect civilians were inadequate or, at least, implemented ineffectively.
Washington and Paris have been monitoring Mozambique closely, and the recent attack increases the possibility of deeper external intervention.
ISIS’s official claim of ISCAP’s attack could indicate the two groups have reconnected after a period in which ISIS had not been claiming the group’s attacks.

Last week, on March 24, the Islamic State in Central Africa Province (ISCAP) in Mozambique, known locally as al-Shabaab (but not affiliated to the Somalia-based al-Shabaab), carried out a major attack in Palma, located in northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province. Although details are still emerging, it appears approximately 120 foreigners, among other Mozambicans, were ferried from the Palma shorelines by rescue boats to avoid being killed. There were, however, dozens of people killed by ISCAP in the attack, including both Mozambicans and foreigners. Through the Islamic State’s central media apparatus, ISCAP claimed that it killed 55 Mozambican and “Christian” forces. Islamic State also released a photo of several dozen ISCAP fighters, but it is unclear when the photo was taken and whether it preceded the Palma attack. Although ISCAP had been conducting attacks over the past several weeks and months, Islamic State had not previously claimed any ISCAP attacks so far this year. Thus, this claim at the very least validates that Islamic State still considers ISCAP as a “province.”

Thousands find refuge after insurgent attack in Mozambique gas town

Thousands of people fleeing an attack claimed by Islamic State have made their way to safety elsewhere in northern Mozambique, aid workers said, while a small group of victims arrived by boat in neighbouring Tanzania.

Insurgents hit the coastal town of Palma, adjacent to gas projects worth $60 billion, with a three-pronged attack last Wednesday. Fighting continued as recently as Tuesday, security sources involved in rescue efforts and the United Nations said.

L’Afrique, nouvelle frontière des groupes jihadistes

Sahel, lac Tchad, Somalie, Sinaï et maintenant Mozambique: l’Afrique est devenue ces dernières années la nouvelle frontière des groupes jihadistes, qui excellent dans l’exploitation des enjeux locaux pour s’implanter et se jouer de la faiblesse des Etats.

Les jihadistes qui tiennent depuis samedi la ville de Palma, dans l’extrême nord-est du Mozambique, constituent le dernier avatar d’une tendance profonde imposant le continent au coeur des priorités des deux centrales jihadistes planétaires.

Fighting in the Shadows: Israel and Iran

Israel and Iran are engaged in an undeclared, low-level war involving attacks on ships, facilities and proxy groups Israeli leaders might be seeking to derail efforts by the Biden administration to rejoin the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear deal.

The conflict could escalate as Iran continues to expand its nuclear activities in violation of the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear agreement the US left. The U.S. and other powers could potentially be drawn into the conflict as their commercial and national security interests become affected.

The Counterterrorism Challenge of “Salad Bar” Ideologies

The terrorist threat to the United States is extremely diverse in 2021, with many ideologies that motivate violence defying simple categorization. 
There are important connectors that facilitate ideological convergence, including anomie, nihilism, misogyny, anti-Semitism, and accelerationism.
There is a growing list of individuals who reflect this “salad bar” of ideologies, combining Salafi-jihadism and white supremacy extremism.
Extremists with a potpourri of grievances, combined with decentralized and diffuse movements, present a difficult security challenge.

In remarks before the Senate Homeland Security Committee in September 2020, FBI Director Christopher Wray described the tendency of some terrorists to be motivated by what he referred to as “a mishmash” or “salad bar” of ideologies, the most prominent feature of which is an attraction to violence. The recently released Office of Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) report on the threat posed by domestic violent extremism (DVE) in 2021 seemed to reference the salad bar analogy when it described “a diverse set of violent extremist ideologies,” adhered to by lone actors and/or small cells of domestic violent extremists (DVEs) as among the most likely to carry out violent attacks in the United States.

China Challenges the US on Iran

According to a leaked draft of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, circulated last year, Iran will receive $400 billion dollars in Chinese investments over the next 25 years in key Iranian economic sectors, including energy, telecommunications, defense, infrastructure, banking, petrochemicals, railways and ports. According to the leaked draft, there will be also an expansion of military assistance, training and intelligence-sharing. Nearly 100 projects are cited in the draft. In return, Iran will commit to providing regular and heavily discounted oil, gas and possibly other natural resources to China.

Iran Still Hiding Key Parts of its Nuclear Programme, US Trying Bribery Again

The latest evidence that Iran is continuing to conceal vital elements of its nuclear programme from the outside world suggest that, even if there is a resumption of negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear programme, the regime has little genuine interest in complying with the terms of any future deal.

In another provocative move, Iran’s conservative-dominated parliament has ordered the government to start limiting some inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN-sponsored body responsible for monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities.