Month: May 2020

EU-MENA relations in a time of pandemic

Everything is changing rapidly amid the COVID-19 pandemic. These changes are occurring primarily at the national level, affecting politics, society, and economics, but the pandemic is also having a major impact on international relations. In the case of the European Union (EU) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, state authorities on both sides of the Mediterranean are focusing mainly on the fight against COVID-19 from a public health perspective. As a result, EU-MENA relations are largely on hold at the moment, with very limited bilateral cooperation compared to the pre-pandemic period. This situation, of course, will not last forever. Nevertheless, leaders in the EU and MENA should be prepared for the political and economic consequences, which are significant.

Turkey Wades into Libya’s Troubled Waters

Turkish intervention in Libya’s war stopped the besieged Tripoli government from collapsing. But fighting with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s forces has since escalated, threatening a protracted conflict. Both Ankara and Haftar’s regional backers should urge their allies toward a return to negotiations and a ceasefire.

Overblown: Exploring the Gap Between the Fear of Terrorist Recidivism and the Evidence

Abstract: Two recent attacks in London, in November 2019 and February 2020, by two convicted terrorists released from prison resulted in a surge of concern about terrorist recidivism. However, statistics and the academic literature suggest that, on the contrary, terrorists are unlikely to relapse into violent extremism. A review of the judiciary files of 557 jihadi terrorist convicts in Belgium, spanning the three decades from 1990, confirms that less than five percent reengaged in terrorist activities. These findings bear significant implications for counterterrorism policies broadly and for sentencing and post-penitentiary measures more specifically.