Month: February 2020

Special Analysises

Video claim of credit by AQAP. Raymni also encouraged knife attacks such as “stabbing with household knife” at the 12:55 minute mark. Five different stabbings were featured listing both the United States inspirational street stabbings. US is top target but “British Muslims” were the target audience for the proposed stabbings.

TRAC President Veryan Khan and Analyst Bethany Rudibaugh spent time this week on a claim of credit by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) for the 04 December shooting at Naval Air Station Pensacola. Saudi Air Force member, 2nd Lt. Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani, opened fire during a training program, killing three before being shot dead by Sheriff’s deputies. Designated as terrorism, the incident had huge implications for U.S. “security cooperation” training programs. Thousands of foreign national military service members are brought to the U.S. annually to help develop military skills and to reinforce multi-national relationships. The attack forced a temporary halt to programs involving Saudi Arabia. On 02 February, AQAP issued an unexpected claim of credit by posting a video/audio message on a Telegram channel. Khan and Rudibaugh examined video to determine authenticity and the connection with Alshamrani. Their analysis deemed the lag time for the claim “not unusual,” pointing to the week it took for AQAP to claim Charlie Hebdo in 2015; and concluded that It should be noted that Raymi did not give any direct evidence that Mohammed Alshamrani was an AQAP fighter, but did offer images of Alshamrani’s personal life.

Rumors Circulate: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Leader Qasim al-Raymi Killed by US Drone Strike in Wadi Ubaidah District , Marib, Yemen – 30 January 2020

According to the U.S. Rewards for Justice Program “Qasim al-Rimi was named emir of AQAP in June 2015, immediately after he swore allegiance to al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and called for renewed attacks against the United States. Al-Rimi trained terrorists at an al-Qa’ida camp in Afghanistan in the 1990’s, and subsequently returned to Yemen and became an AQAP military commander. He was sentenced to five years in prison in 2005 in Yemen of plotting to assassinate the U.S. Ambassador to Yemen, and escaped in 2006.”

The AQAP claim for the Naval Air Station Pensacola attack follows intense speculation on the leader of the terrorist group, Qasim al-Raymi. On 29 and 30 January 2020 chatter circulated Twitter about an alleged United States drone strike on the residence of an “al-Qaeda member” in the Marib province of Yemen.After further investigation into this chatter, tweets surfaced that al-Raymi had been targeted and killed in the strike. If confirmed that Qasim al-Raymi was killed, AQAP’s leadership structure will have to reorganize and certainly will affect their operations at least in the short term

(Instructional Advice) Anarchist: How-To Destroy Signal Boxes and Railroad Tracks to Disrupt Trains Using Thick Gauge Copper Wire & Thermite in North America – 25 January 2020 (Advocating Attacks on Infrastructure)

The “Act For Free / Act For Revolution” website banner

On 25 January, TRAC Analyst, Kelsey Tamplin discovered on the anarchist website, “Act For Free / Act For Revolution,” which is known for posting anarchist activity around the world from official groups and self-starter/lone wolves, an instructional manual on how to destroy railways. Even before the instructional manual was published, there were two sabotage attacks on Canadian railways – both of which appeared to have been committed by lone wolves. It is worth noting that there is some similarities between the instructions on railways and other recent instructions given by white nationalists on Telegram. However, the anarchist instructions are much more detailed than those of the racists’ online echo chamber.

Caliphate Soldiers Targeted The Gas Pipeline Between The Jews and The Egyptian Government By Several Explosive Devices In ‘al-Talol’ Village, East Bir al-Abd, Sinai, Egypt – 3 February 2020

The “Act For Free / Act For Revolution” website banner

TRAC Analyst, Sophia Badawy reported a claim by Islamic State Sinai (ISS) attempting to make good on the promise from the new Caliph to attack Israel. Egypt began importing gas from Israel last month through an East Mediterranean Gas Company (EMG) pipeline, which includes a sub-sea connection between el-Arish in Sinai and Ashkelon in Israel. In the second audio message released by the new Caliph, Shaykh Abu Hamza al-Qurashi, he specifically called on cells in the Sinai to attack Isreal and it appears that Islamic State Sinai (ISS) is attempting to answer that call.

Violence In Mali Continues To Escalate As Jihadists Fuel Ethnic Tensions

Violence amongst ethnic groups in Mali has sparked concern from human rights campaigners. The country experienced its deadliest year for civilians in 2019 since Mali’s political and military crisis in 2012. Jihadists from al-Qaeda and ISIS have been encouraging inter-ethnic attacks in the hopes of asserting their power throughout both the country and the West African region. In the past two years, these militants have also demonstrated their influence by forming an alliance called the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) and by establishing a new cell called the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. A new Human Rights Watch report has estimated that more than 456 people have died in the past year alone from the violence.

The Terrorists Migrating into Europe

“Most migrant terrorists involved in thwarted or completed attacks were purposefully deployed to the migration flows by an organized terrorist group to conduct or support attacks in destination countries.” — Todd Bensman, “What Terrorist Migration Over European Borders Can Teach About American Border Security”, Center for Immigration Studies.

Spain: European Court Approves Summary Deportations of Illegal Migrants

The Strasbourg-based court — which has jurisdiction over 47 European countries, and whose rulings are binding on all 27 member states of the European Union — ruled that in order for migrants to benefit from certain human rights protections, such as access to lawyers, interpreters and the right to remain in Europe, they must first enter European territory in a legal, as opposed to an illegal, manner.

Libya: Special Monitoring, Brussels, 12.02.2020

Political Situation

The United Nations said eastern Libyan forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar have refused to grant landing permits for flights bringing U.N. staff to and from Libya, a statement said on Wednesday. (Reuters, Canada, 12.02.2020)

Turkey faces potential Russian blowback on Syria — and tomatoes are only the beginning

Turkish trucks carrying $10 million worth of tomatoes are stranded at the Russian border, again. The miles-long queues of vehicles awaiting clearance from Russian authorities are reminiscent of the strained ties between the two countries after Turkey shot down a Russian jet in 2015. After the incident, Russia slapped sanctions on Turkey and imposed a ban on Turkish agricultural imports. As the two countries slowly resumed ties, Russia lifted the restrictions on Turkish food imports, but the tomato ban remained in effect, reminding Turks that not all was forgiven and forgotten. Eventually, Russia lifted the ban on tomatoes too, but as tensions between Moscow and Ankara have escalated in the last few weeks over Syria, the tomato war has once again flared up. Producers in the southern Turkish city of Antalya, who sell 80 percent of their tomatoes to Russia, are expecting the government to resolve the rift. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has developed a close rapport with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, is in a tough spot.

Special Analysises

10 reasons why Boko Haram still shoots and bombs despite defeat

By Theophilus Abbah At the rate Boko Haram terrorists launch suicide attacks, lay siege on the military, kill helpless civilians, and kidnap the vulnerable in the North-East in spite of

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How Boko Haram killed 30 in Borno

Boko Haram fighters on Sunday killed no fewer than 30 people who were travelers that spent the night in Auno, a community 25km away from Maiduguri. The attack which lasted

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France Reconsiders Force Posture In The Sahel Amid Surging Violence

Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) is now seen by France and Sahelian countries as the greatest security threat in West Africa.

Reports about a drawdown of U.S. troops in West Africa and ISGS’s growing strength have led France and some countries in the region, including Chad, to increase their military presence throughout the Sahel.